周四股市出现下滑，但基于标普500在其前7个交易时段上涨2.5%而言，整体跌幅为0.1%真是微不足道。到目前为止，并没有交易者在这种下跌中匆忙买入。标普期货下跌6个点且在期权到期日以低于公允值0.2%的价格交易。

​

通常情况下，负面的指责很大程度上是来自政治领域，有些报道称GOP（美国共和党）在税制改革计划中存在内部分歧。尤其是一些报道称边境税务调整范围存在分歧，一些人声称如果要实施税务改革计划，这将是一个必要的因素。

大家都必须等待税务改革的结果，但是今天的看法是，如果不是搁置的话，争论可能也会拖延2017年税务改革计划的实施。

对这个问题我们已经没有什么更多可解释的了，但也应该指出这种不确定性的来源也不是什么新的。是的，很容易用来解释为什么标普期货今早下跌，但是真正的原因可能只是市场在短时间内急剧上涨之后，趋向于一些获利回吐。

受来自英国令人失望的零售报告的影响，IMF（国际货币基金组织）和欧元区财务部关于为希腊提供新一轮援助方面仍旧没有达成协议，以及来自通用磨坊（股票代码：GIS）2017财务年度销售和盈利的警告也像是悬挂在市场上的一片乌云。

公平来讲，这种乌云并不是那种黑色的雨云。

也有一些令人振奋的发展需要考虑，包括来自Deere & Co.（股票代码：DE）优于预期的第四季度报告与展望，以及卡夫（股票代码：KHC）确认与联合利华（股票代码：UN）就合并一事接洽。

顺便提一句，联合利华拒绝了卡夫的提议：据说是现金加股票为每股50美元。该提议从本质上就低估了联合利华且在这次交易中对其股东没有表现出任何财务或战略上的好处。而KraftHeinz表示希望就交易条款来讲达成协议。

不管怎么说，在主要指数处于历史高点情况下，2个龙头公司的并购活动从某种角度来看提供了一定程度的支持，即许多公司因为其高股价有钱进行合并交易，且仍处于相当高的溢价状况。

今早的企业新闻夺人眼球，填补了股市开盘之前没什么经济数据公布的空缺。

今天唯一的报告是东部时间上午10点发布的一月份主要经济指标报告（Briefing.com预测为上涨0.5%）。鉴于昨天一月份建筑许可出现了令人意外的惊喜，对于主要经济指标报告来讲出现同样的惊喜也很有可能，因为经济学家在作出建筑许可预测时，也不知晓许可的数字。

作为提醒，下周一为总统节假日，股市和债券市场将会关闭。

--PatrickJ. O'Hare, Briefing.com

A Bit of a Dip

It was a down day for the stock market on Thursday, yet that is overstating things a bit considering the S&P 500, which had risen 2.5% over the prior seven sessions, fell all of 0.1%.  Thus far, there hasn't been a rush to buy the dip.  The S&P futures are down six points and are trading 0.2% below fair value on this options expiration day.

Naturally, the finger pointing for the negative disposition is largely being directed toward the political arena and some reported divisiveness in the GOP over the shape of the tax reform plan.  In particular, there is some reported disagreement over the inclusion of a border adjustment tax, which some parties claim is a necessary ingredient if a tax reform plan is going to get done.

Everyone will have to wait and see what comes to pass, yet the thinking today is that this point of contention could delay, if not derail, the passage of a tax reform plan in 2017.

Having exhausted our explanatory effort on the matter, it would be remiss not to offer that this source of uncertainty isn't new.  Accordingly, it is a convenient explanation for describing why the S&P futures are down this morning, yet the real reason may simply be that the market is succumbing to some profit-taking efforts after a sharp run in a short period of time.

Sprinkle in a disappointing retail sales report from the UK, the continued lack of an agreement between the IMF and eurozone finance ministers on another round of bailout aid for Greece, and an FY17 sales and earnings warning from General Mills (GIS) and, well, there is a bit of a pall hanging over the market.

To be fair, that pall doesn't exactly rank as a dark rain cloud.  

There have been some uplifting developments to consider, too, namely the better than expected fourth quarter report and outlook from Deere & Co. (DE), and the confirmation from Kraft Heinz (KHC) that it approached Unilever (UN) about a merger.

Unilever, incidentally, rejected the Kraft proposal, which it said was for $50 per share in cash and stock, noting the offer fundamentally undervalues Unilever and that it sees no financial or strategic merit in the deal for its shareholders.  Kraft Heinz for its part said it looks forward to reaching an agreement on the terms of the transaction.

Anyhow, the M&A action involving two leading companies with the major indices at record highs lends a measure of support from the standpoint that there is an appreciation for the fact that many companies have the currency in their high stock prices to get deals done still at decent-sized premiums.

This is a bit of scintillating corporate news this morning that is filling in for an otherwise quiet economic calendar before the open.

The lone report today is the Leading Indicators Report for January (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.  With the upside surprise seen yesterday for January building permits, there is a good chance that the Leading Indicator Report will also provide an upside surprise since economists didn't have the benefit of knowing the permits number when they made their forecasts.

As a reminder, the stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Briefing.com。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。

该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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