新年的第一季度马上就要结束了，对股市来说，如果和经济无关，目前是又一个创纪录的季度。标普500从年初至今上涨6.4%，和亚特兰大联储局的GDPNow 模型的第一季度实际GDP年增长率仅略微增长0.9%的预测相比简直是天壤之别。

当然，股市自去年11月以来持续增长，这是借助选举后特郎普政府承诺关于税收改革，放松监管以及基础设施支出所带来的热情。

某种意义上说，股市允许其自身被一些甜言蜜语所讨好，并且现在认为在促进增长的改革之后，股市的好日子会一直持续下去。

当婚姻处于蜜月时总是很容易想像永远幸福。但是我们国家的离婚数据表明，现实并不总是与幻想相符。

对股市来说，这样考虑至关重要，因为新政府的蜜月期即将结束，真实的婚姻生活马上就要开始了。我们知晓这一点是因为在竞选活动中提出的愿景目前要提交给立法部门了，而那里的情形没有这么容易。

立法过程如何从此展开可能最终能确定牛市的发展态势。

面对的问题

对于新政府来说首当其冲的问题就是医疗卫生改革，核心是在于废除与取代奥巴马医改。

我们在此不对众议院共和党的计划详细赘述，但是许多报道称起始改革方案有其不当之处。这在共和党之外看来是毫无疑问的，但关键是报道称共和党内部有许多不同观点。

因此，即使如果医疗卫生改革方案能够发生，其进程也不会那么容易。

对市场来说，这可能是个争论的焦点，因为政府宣称只有医疗卫生改革方案通过之后税务改革才会进行，而税务改革的前景才是自选举以来推动市场的主要动力。

公平来讲，如果医疗卫生改革方案滞后，如果医疗卫生改革妥协达成，这个过程有可能也会是更加艰难曲折，但税务改革的问题仍然可以进行下去。

行政当局宣称八月是通过税务改革的目标日期。如果能按目标日期完成，在接下俩几个月将有大量工作需要去做。在此之前，市场可能不会有任何问题，但是任何关于不适当推迟税务改革的说辞都有可能导致牛市下滑，有时甚至会使牛市倒退。

然而，当涉及到政治和牛市，不仅仅是国内的问题。某些情况是全球性的问题，比如不绝于耳的贸易保护主义，来自北朝鲜的不断穷兵黩武，以及选举的不确定性笼罩着欧盟。

似曾相识？

第二季度的初期可能关于欧洲政治与欧盟命运的言论所左右。那时因为法国总统选举的第一轮投票将发生在四月底，第二轮将在五月初进行。

本次选举的结果对全球市场来说将是至关重要的转折点，因为如果法国前民族阵线的领导人Marine Le Pen赢得本次选举，这将提升欧盟地位。

Le Pen女士对于法国保守的民粹主义信息的共鸣是一个潜在的不安因素。因为如果她当选，将牵扯到呼吁撤出欧盟的法国全民公投。

Le Pen女士并不是赢得总统选举的最佳候选人，对她的支持是基于法国缓慢的增长率与高失业率。另外，鉴于英国脱欧公投与美国总统选举的惊人结果，市场参与者对投票结果会有所准备。

人们可能将Le Pen女士赢得选举的概率定位在低中概率，但确是一个高风险事件。原因是，第一，它并不是期待发生的；第二，关于欧盟的命运，欧元的价值，欧洲主权国家的债务以及银行对欧洲债务的披露，他将带来各种各样的短期焦虑。

相反，她的失利可能会给全球市场提供某种方式的缓解，因为人们不需要再考虑第三大经济体脱离欧盟所带来的最糟情况。

估值评估

当分析当前市场时，不可避免地要谈到政治，但却不仅仅只有政治。

在政治方面发生的事情要么激起对估值的关注，要么能够缓解关注。市场表现出溢价估值，一部分原因在于利率较低，一部分原因在于人们对于促进增长的改革方案的期望，和由此产生的强劲的经济和盈利增长的高预期。

 好消息是收益再次增长，且并非得益于财政刺激政策。

根据FactSet，2017全年收益增长预计为9.8%且收入增长预计为5.3%。比起去年12月31日预计的11.4%与5.9%有所下降。

预期收益增长下调并不罕见，但是看到当前市场大幅上涨的同时预期收益增长下降却是罕见的。这既说明了市场潜在的价格动力，以及实施了包括公司税务削减和/或税务返还假期在内的财政刺激政策之后，盈利增长最终更加强劲的预期。

因此，为了证实当前植入其中数倍的强劲增长的预期，未来的经济和收益数据变得越来越重要。如果华盛顿不能按照市场希望的那样通过承诺的改革将会带来数倍的紧缩。

但是，即使改革通过了，我们保守的认为市场也不会有大的反应，因为股价早已包括了这么多盈利的好消息，而且利率有可能会更高。

关注利率

因此到目前为止，利率并没有对牛市造成干扰。

长期利率已经有一些疲软的时刻，但是也有强劲的时刻相互抵消。最终结果是10年期债券收益率（2.5%）与年初收益率大致相同。

对外国买家来说，因为美国国债收益率相对于其本国的超低收益率（如果不是负收益率）和疲软货币具有相对吸引力，利率差异交易提供了一定程度的支持。

同时，考虑到担忧股市已经过度超前，美国国债持续受益于安全交易而获得新的资本流入。

另一个有趣的事情是，美联储自12月14日以来已经两次提高了联邦基金利率的目标范围，总共50个基点。 2年期票据的收益率自12月13日收盘后上涨13个基点，而10年期票据的收益率只上涨3个基点。

平滑的收益率曲线的背后至少说明股市是由各种强劲的经济增长所驱动的，就像我们知道银行引领的反弹是基于其净利息收益率的扩大而导致其盈利前景的改进。

需要密切关注国债市场的走向。目前和所阐述的增长并不同步。同时，如果长期利率有所提高，它将会引发人们对扩大估值的担忧。

现在，国债市场并不足以引起股票市场的调整，美联储也没有紧锣密鼓地有所行动。

就美联储而言，它对经济前景更乐观，但仍然预测走向利率正常化是一条缓慢的道路。 到目前为止，股市持续相信美联储推销的经济正在变得越来越强，并且需要有较高的联邦基金利率来应对。

接下来的经济数据将最终表明情况是否属实。

这到底是什么意思?

市场的高P/E倍数反映了高预期，它也反映出高风险资产的不断增高的风险，如股票发生不测的话。

各个行业的估值均在扩大。

根据FactSet的数据表明，除了电信服务行业以外，每个行业的P/E率均高于其5年和10年历史P/E率的平均水平。 这并不意味着这些部门注定会在近期内下跌，但如果市场的情绪因为多种原因而改变，他们可能会下跌。 它也表明长期回报前景将受到约束。

就整体而言，股市一直处在幸福状态。她忽视了特朗普总统领导风格中大多数的瑕疵，更关注于他所提倡的促进增长的想法。

所以，股市才能上升到新的高度，表明与特朗普政府的婚姻确实是一个良好的开端。

大多数婚姻亦是如此。当情况变得艰难，外部因素开始影响到新婚夫妇的亲密状态，婚姻的真正妙法取决于自己，反之亦然。

可以肯定的是，对于股市来说，并不总是这样美好，自选举以来，股市已经上涨了11％，自10月初以来并没有经历每日下跌1.0％或更多，这是自1995年以来最长区间的上涨。

当结婚时说“I Do – 我同意”时，希望很高，而波动率较低，这是新婚初期常有的情况。当交换誓言时，每个人都希望婚姻地牢天长。但是不幸的是，故事的结尾并不总是幸福的结局。

如果特朗普政府促进增长改革誓言得不到实现，股市的良好态势也可能荡然无存。

在任何情况下，今天过于超高的估值表明，投资者需要谨慎的充分了解他们的风险承受能力和需要现金的时间，如果他们的股票持有视为资金来源的话。 选举后的蜜月期正在结束，这意味着潜在的婚姻不和及失败风险正在上升。

Market View Update - March 2017

The first quarter of the new year is nearly complete and it has been another stellar quarter for the stock market so far, if not for the economy.  The S&P 500 is up 6.4% year-to-date, which flies in the face of a meager 0.9% annual growth rate projected by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Model for first quarter real GDP.

The stock market, of course, has been flying since last November, riding a wave of post-election enthusiasm built around the Trump Administration's promises of tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure spending.  

In a manner of speaking, the stock market has allowed itself to be wooed by a lot of sweet talk and it is now betrothed to the idea of living happily ever after with pro-growth reforms.  

Eternal marital bliss is easy to imagine on a honeymoon, but as our nation's divorce rate indicates, the reality doesn't always match up with the fantasy.

That consideration is an important one for the stock market, because the honeymoon with the new administration is ending and the hard work of marriage is just beginning.  We know this because the promises put forth on the campaign trail are now starting to make their way to legislative chambers where things are not quite as blissful.

How the lawmaking process unfolds there could go a long way toward determining how the bull market unfolds from here.

A Point of Order

The first order of business for the new administration is health care reform, which is concentrated on the platform of repealing and replacing Obamacare.

We're not going to rehash all of the specifics of the House GOP plan here, yet many reports have suggested the initial reform plan has its share of critics.  That holds true certainly outside of the GOP, yet the key point is that there are reportedly plenty of critics within the GOP.

The assumption, therefore, is that the passage of a health care reform plan isn't going to be easy, if the passage of one happens at all.  

That can be a point of contention for the market since it has been told tax reform cannot happen until a health care reform plan is passed -- and it is the prospect of tax reform that has been the main engine driving the market since the election.

To be fair, the matter of tax reform could still be taken up if health care reform falls by the wayside, yet the process would likely be more cantankerous and elongated than it would be if a compromise on health care reform is reached.

August has been held out by administration officials as a target date for the passage of tax reform.  There is a lot of work that needs to get done in the next several months, then, if that target date is to be met. The market may be content to ride things out until then, yet any notion that tax reform is being unduly delayed is apt to slow this bull market down and perhaps at times knock it back.

It's not just a domestic issue, though, when it comes to politics and the bull market.  It's a global issue when taking into account some of the protectionist trade banter that has been heard, the incessant saber-rattling from saber-toothed North Korea, and the election uncertainty hanging over the European Union. 

Deja Vu?

The early part of the second quarter is going to be dominated with talk (and maybe indecision) over the state of European politics and the fate of the European Union.  That's because the French presidential election will feature a first round of voting in late April and a second round in early May.

The outcome of that election is seen as an important inflection point for global markets since it could upend the European Union if Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Front National Party, wins.  

Ms. Le Pen's populist message of protectionism for France resonates as a potentially upsetting factor since it involves a call to hold a referendum in France, if elected, on the matter of withdrawing from the European Union.  

Ms. Le Pen is not the favorite to win the presidential election, yet her base of support has been building with the sluggish growth and high unemployment rate in France; moreover, market participants remain understandably leery of polling results given the surprising outcomes of the Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential election.

One might characterize a win by Ms. Le Pen as being a low-to-mid probability, but a high-risk event for a few reasons.  First, because it is not expected, and second, because it will create all sorts of short-term angst about the fate of the European Union, the value of the euro and European sovereign debt, and bank exposure to European debt.

Conversely, her defeat would likely provide a measure of relief for global markets, which would no longer have to take into account a worst-case scenario of a divorce from the European Union by its third-largest economy.

An Evaluation of Valuation

There is no getting around the issue of politics when it comes to considering this market, yet it isn't just about politics.  

What happens on the political front will either inflame valuation concerns or pour some cold water on them.  The market sports a premium valuation, partly because interest rates are low and partly because expectations for pro-growth reform -- and the stronger economic and earnings growth it is expected to produce -- are so high.

At its current level, the S&P 500 trades at 19.6x trailing twelve-month earnings and 17.7x forward twelve month earnings.  That's a healthy premium to the 10-yr historical averages of 15.3x and 13.9x, respectively.

The good news is that earnings are growing again and they are doing so without any support from fiscal stimulus.  

According to FactSet, calendar 2017 earnings growth is expected to be 9.8% with revenue growth projected to be 5.3%.  That is down from 11.4% and 5.9% projected on December 31.

It is not unusual to see earnings growth estimates come down, yet it is atypical to see the market go up as sharply as this one has with earnings growth estimates coming down.  That speaks both to the underlying price momentum in the market and the expectation that earnings growth will ultimately be stronger on the back of fiscal stimulus measures that could include corporate tax cuts and/or a tax repatriation holiday.

Accordingly, it will be increasingly important for incoming economic and earnings data to corroborate the robust growth expectations embedded in current multiples.  Failure to get the promised reforms passed in Washington in the manner the market has been expecting should prompt some multiple compression.

Yet, even if the reforms are passed, we are reticent to think it will be a moon shot for the market since so much good news on the earnings front has been priced in already and interest rates would presumably be headed higher.

Rate Watch

Thus far, interest rates haven't played the role of spoiler for the bull market.

Long-term rates have had some moments of weakness, yet there have been some offsetting periods of strength too.  The end result is that the yield on the 10-yr note (2.50%) is roughly the same as where it began the year.

Interest rate differential trades have provided a measure of support as US Treasury yields have had some relative appeal for foreign buyers faced with ultra-low yields at home (if not negative yields) and weaker currencies.

At the same time, Treasuries have continued to benefit from a safety trade as worries that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself have fostered new inflows.

Another interesting twist on matters is that the Fed has raised the target range for the fed funds rate twice since December 14 for a total of 50 basis points.  The yield on the 2-yr note is up 13 basis points since the close on December 13 while the yield on the 10-yr note is only up three basis points.

The backdrop of a flattening yield curve is peculiar to say the least when pitted against the narrative that the stock market is being driven by visions of much stronger economic growth and knowing that banks have helped lead the rally on the notion that their earnings prospects will improve with an expansion in their net interest margins.

The behavior of the Treasury market will need to be watched closely.  It looks out of sync at the moment with the growth narrative.  At the same time, if there is a spike in long-term rates, it will pique added concerns about stretched valuations.

Right now, the Treasury market isn't acting up enough to spark a correction in the stock market and the Fed isn't banging its tightening drum loud enough yet to spark one either.

In terms of the Fed, it is sounding more upbeat about the economic outlook, yet it is still forecasting a gradual path toward normalization.  The stock market so far continues to buy what the Fed is selling based on the view the economy is getting stronger to warrant -- and to handle -- a higher fed funds rate.

Incoming economic data will eventually indicate if that is in fact the case.

What It All Means

The high P/E multiple for the market reflects high expectations, yet it also reflects the growing risk with riskier assets like stocks if something bad was to happen.

Sector valuations are stretched across the board.

Every sector, with the exception of the telecom services sector, is trading at a premium to its 5-yr and 10-yr historical P/E averages, according to FactSet. That doesn't mean these sectors are destined to go down big in the near term, but they could if the mood of the market changes for any number of reasons.  It also suggests long-term return prospects will be constrained.

For all intents and purposes, the stock market has remained in a blissful state.  It has ignored most of the hemming and hawing about President Trump's leadership style and has remained focused on his leading, pro-growth ideas.

Having done so, the market has risen to new record heights, suggesting its marriage with the Trump Administration has gotten off to a good start.

Most marriages do.  It is when times get tough and outside influences start affecting the close-knit dynamic of newlyweds that the true mettle of a marital union shows itself -- or not.

To be sure, times won't always seem this good for the stock market, which has risen 11% since election night and hasn't experienced a daily decline of 1.0%, or more, since early October -- the longest such streak since 1995.

Hopes are high, which goes with the "I dos," and volatility is low, which is often the case at the start of a new marriage.  Everyone pulls for the marital union to last when the vows are exchanged, but unfortunately, there isn't always a happily-ever-after ending.

If the Trump Administration's pro-growth reform vows don't get kept, there might not be one for the stock market either.

In any case, stretched valuations today suggest it is prudent for investors to have a good understanding of their risk tolerance and the timing of cash needs if they are looking at their equity holdings as a source of funds.  The post-election honeymoon phase is ending, which means the potential for marital discord and downside risk is rising.

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者briefing.com。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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