抛售注定要在某个时刻发生的。在连续109个交易日后，标普于本周二出现了自过去十月（有史以来第九个最长区间）以来第一次下降-1%。尽管昨天是一段时间以来标普首次发生下降，其比例为-6到1，但过去数周来随着市场上避险的运作，我们一直处于内部调整状态，像运输业和小盘股行业的微弱偏差和油价调整。头寸也在过去几周内有所扩张，使得市场更容易出现盘整。股票以其20天低点交易的百分比在周二达到了25%，目前还是上升趋势，市场出现问题时的数字均为约50%。当然目前得出任何结论为时尚早，但是我们会将2250-75附近作为标普图表进入第二季度的很好的支持区间。 

银行股票绝对是昨天市场上最疲软的行业之一，但是值得注意的是该行业中超过95%的股票仍然高于其200天移动平均线。该指标通常会在最严重问题出现之前就降低了。上升趋势中的回调通常值得买入，并且我们在接下来的几周内择机利用该行业的疲软（银行指数已接近下跌10%）。

全球市场有可能跟随昨天美国市场的走势，新兴市场和欧洲一直在2017年充当领头的地位。除了战术性的疲软外，鉴于全球指数表现的同过去一样坚挺，我们在此不想受太多消极的影响。

2017年第一次抛售信号

2017第一个日1%区间分布

银行股20天低点为75%

领跑股市轮换？

Key Takeaways From Yesterday's Selloff

Well it had to happen at some point.  After 109 consecutive trading days, Tuesday marked the first -1% decline for the S&P since last October (the 9th longest streak of all-time).  While yesterday was the first pronounced S&P decline in some time with breadth at -6 to 1, we’ve been in the camp that the market has been consolidating internally over the last few weeks with risk-off attributes working, groups like the transports and small-caps diverging modestly, and oil correcting.  Positioning has also extended over the last few weeks, leaving the market more vulnerable to consolidation.  The % of stocks trading to a 20-day low hit 25% on Tuesday, and in uptrends, readings around 50% are consistent with a washout.  It’s certainly too early to make that call, but we’d look to the 2250-75 neighborhood as a good area of support on the S&P chart moving into the 2nd quarter. 

The bank stocks were certainly one of the weakest pockets of the market yesterday, but it’s important to note that more than 95% of the sector is still above its 200-day moving average.  This indicator often erodes before a more serious top takes shape.  Pullbacks in uptrends are generally buyable, and we’ll look to use weakness for the group opportunistically over coming weeks (the Bank Index is nearly down -10% already).

While global markets are likely to follow the U.S. lead from yesterday, both E.M. and Europe have been a source of leadership in 2017.  Tactical weakness aside, we are reluctant to get too negative here with the global indices acting as firm as they have recently.  

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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