上周，以其20天低点交易的股票百分比达31%，这反映出市场持续内部调整。在上升趋势中，高于50%的读数（例如，过半的标普达到20天低点）通常被视为市场越来越接近可交易低点的有力信号。鉴于标普刚从最近的高点下跌2%，目前尚未达到可交易的水平。我们将观察这一指标，同时注意小盘股，运输业，能源，美元对日元，以及铜的表现。。。他们首次于二月中旬开始疲软，因此他们也有可能需要先实现稳定。上周标普做多头寸表现温和，但却不符合市场情绪走势。鉴于净做空早已接近极限，罗素2000头寸交易与市场情绪较为接近。至于标普关键水平，近期的支持水平为2275左右，之后应该是在2200-2210区间。

在行业水平上，非消费必需品行业是分歧最多的行业之一。尽管来自大盘股若个股票表现的改进使得近期的相对表现趋稳，但对“平均”股票来说，表现缺乏稳定。鉴于零售行业的CDS（信用违约互换）引发了许多问题，该行业仍然是压力的焦点。积极的一面是，酒店&游轮公司持续展现领导作用。

。。。小盘股做空更加激进

上周酒店&游轮公司表现良好

Consolidation Ongoing, Watching 20-Day Lows, Positioning, & Small-Caps

The % of stocks trading to a 20-day low hit 31% last week, reflective of a market that continues to correct internally.  In uptrends, readings above 50% (i.e., half of the S&P making a 20-day low) are often a decent signal that the market is getting closer to a tradeable low.  With the S&P just -2% from the recent highs, we’re not there yet.  We’ll watch this metric, along with the performance of small-caps, transports, energy, USDJPY, and Copper... they were first to start weakening in mid-February, so they’ll likely need to stabilize first as well.  Long positioning came in modestly last week for the S&P, but is not yet consistent with a sentiment flush.  Russell 2000 positioning is closer, with net shorts already nearing an extreme.  With respect to key levels, near-term S&P support is in the 2275 range followed by the 2200-2210 area.

At the sector level, Consumer Discretionary remains one of the more bifurcated groups.  Improvements from large-cap names have helped relative performance stabilize recently, though performance is less consistent for the “average” stock.  Retailers remain a focal point of stress with CDS elevated for many issues.  On the positive side, the Hotels & Cruise Lines continue to exhibit leadership.

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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