今天的报告强调了非消费必需品行业与核心消费品行业的持续分歧。尽管这两个行业在2017年市值比重基础上有比较良好的表现，但是走势仍旧参差不齐，由于在过去3/6/12个月中平均消费者表现弱于平均标普500表现，相对领导力仍是个问题。相关数据也反映出深层次的分散 – 选择个股在这里仍是一个重要因素。从整体水平来看，CDS（非消费必需品行业）零售股依旧走高，但值得注意的是，对许多公司而言做空利息已达极致，且昨天的有利举措有可能反映出近期的覆盖阶段。在其他方面，房屋建筑商股票还在上涨，酒店业仍处于领导地位，餐厅表现出改良的迹象，博彩业在经历了暴跌的熊市之后继续走高，一些媒体/广播公司表现也有所改进。

展望核心消费品行业，正如我们在昨天的报告中所提及到的，尽管该行业重回最近的高点但市场参与率没有那么的引人注目，只有54%的行业股票处于上涨趋势区域（与去年夏天的92%形成对比）。更长期的走势较为温和，在股票方面，许多该行业的公司例如食品产品公司，零售公司以及酿酒厂并没有参与到最近的风险规避反弹中。

“平均”非消费必需品行业落后

核心消费品行业接近历史高点，但是走势幅度偏窄

“SIN”作用

Consumer Sector Focus... Stock Picking Matters

Today’s note highlights the continued bifurcation from the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors.  While both groups have modestly outperformed on a market-cap weighted basis in 2017, trends remain mixed and relative leadership is still a question mark with the average Consumer issue underperforming the average S&P 500 issue over the last 3/6/12-months.  The correlation data also reflects dispersion under the surface – stock selection remains an important factor here.  At the group level, CDS remains elevated for retail stocks though it’s worth noting that short interest is extreme for many names and yesterday’s positive move is likely reflective of a near-term covering phase.  Elsewhere, the Homebuilders are breaking out, Hotels remain leadership, and Restaurants are showing signs of improvement.  Casinos continue to turn higher following sharp bear markets and some Media / Broadcasting names are also acting better.
Looking to Consumer Staples, and as we noted in yesterday’s report, while the sector is back to recent highs participation is less impressive with just 54% of constituents in an uptrend vs. 92% last summer.  Longer-term momentum is also tepid, and at the stock level, many names in groups like Food Products, Food Retail, and the Brewers have not participated in the recent risk-off rally.

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.