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盈透:表现强劲的第一季度迎来了最后一天

2017-3-31 23:46 盈透专栏 interactive 评论: (0) |原作者: Briefing.com|来自: IB美国盈透证券

今天是第一季度的最后一天,标普500今年上涨5.8%,代表着自2013年以来最好的第一季度表现。


对于这种表现,本周起到了积极的推动作用,原因在于标普500本周上涨1.0%且从周一的低点上涨2.0%,在此之前,众议院没能表决医改提案。


股指期货在海外市场表现参差不齐情况下今早小幅走低。亚洲交易市场一夜之间开始振荡,日本和香港市场收盘亏损0.8%,中国市场在亚洲中表现突出,上涨0.4%。欧洲市场现在也是参差不齐,德国DAX(德国股票指数)交易持平,而英国FTSE(富时指数)下跌0.5%。


一夜之间发布了许多数据,欧元区核心消费者物价通胀年同比下降至0.7%,这是自去年4月份以来的最低水平。德国的就业市场三月优于预期,英国的2016年第四季度经济同比增长0.7%(恰如预期)。


今早也有几个美国的经济数据要点发布,还有几个会在股市开盘后发布。考虑到通货膨胀,二月核心PCE(个人消费支出)价格如预期上涨0.2%。个人收入如预期一样增长0.4%,但个人支出仅上涨0.1%,略逊色于预期。这些数据并没有给开市前交易造成太大影响。开盘后,我们将在东部时间9:45观察三月芝加哥PMI(采购经理人指数),以及东部时间10点最后修订的密歇根大学消费者市场情绪读数。芝加哥PMI报告可能会引起市场反应。


在盈利新闻方面,黑莓(股票代码:BBRY)在超越预期盈利和收入之后,交易上涨7%。预计在全年自由现金流为正的基础上会实现盈利。


在并购新闻方面,工程与建筑管理公司TRC Co(股票代码:TRR)宣布NewMountain 合伙公司将以每股17.55美金的全部现金交易将公司私有化。交易价格比昨天的收盘价高出47%,因此今天可能会激起其他建筑和工程的兴趣。


第二季度的第一周会充斥着众多的就业数据,最甚者当属下周五的三月就业数据报告。


在那之后,焦点将转移至第一季度盈利报告,将于四月中旬开始。第一季度的盈利目前预计上涨约9%,销售上涨约7%,这是自去年第一季度盈利以来的大幅改进,当时盈利和销售分别下降7%和1%。


Final Day of a Strong First Quarter

Today is the final day of the first quarter and the S&P 500 is up 5.8% on the year, representing the best Q1 performance since 2013. 

This week has been a positive factor toward that performance, as the S&P 500 is up 1.0% on the week and 2.0% from Monday's lows, which followed the failure of the House's health care bill.

Equity futures are fractionally lower this morning, following a mixed performance overseas. Asian trading got off to a shaky start overnight and Japanese and Hong Kong markets closed out the day with 0.8% losses. China was among the bright spots in Asia with a 0.4% gain. European stocks are now mixed, with Germany's DAX trading flat while the UK's FTSE is off 0.5%. 

There was plenty of data released overnight, with Eurozone core consumer price inflation falling to 0.7% year/year, its lowest level since last April. Germany's job market grew more than expected in March and the United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.7% quarter/quarter in Q4 of 2016, as expected.

There were also a few U.S. economic data points released this morning and there are a few more due after the open. February core PCE Prices, which gives a read on inflation, came in as expected at +0.2%. Personal Income was also in-line with expectations at +0.4, while Personal Spending came in just shy of expectations at 0.1%. The data didn't have much of an impact on pre-market trading. After the open, we get a look at March Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET, and the final revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading at 10:00 ET. The Chicago PMI report could see a market response.

In earnings news, BlackBerry (BBRY) is trading higher by 7% after it beat earnings and revenue estimates and said it expects to be profitable with positive free cash flow on a full year basis. 

In M&A news, engineering and construction management company TRC Co (TRR) announced it will be taken private by New Mountain Partners in an all cash transaction valued at $17.55/share. The deal price represents a large 47% premium to yesterday's closing price, so it could spark some interest in other construction and engineering peers today.

The second quarter starts with a busy week of employment data, culminating with next Friday's Employment Report for the month of March.

After that the focus will shift toward Q1 earnings season, which begins in mid-April. First quarter earnings are currently expected to grow around 9% with sales up around 7%, a big improvement from last year's Q1 earnings and sales declines of 7% and 1%, respectively.


这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Briefing.com。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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